IMMEDIATE CAUSE OF RUSSIA AND UKRAINE WAR
—27, Feb. ’22
Author’s Note
THAT A LARGE percentage of folks do not know the “why” of the war betwixt Russia and Ukraine is more than likely.
Yet, such ignorant folks are quick to jump to conclusions that Russia is the aggressor.
Fact is, there’s more to the war than what appears on the surface.
Nonetheless, this here composition is to apprise the readers of the fact of the matter and; hence, have a lucid understanding and a better appreciation of what is playing out in Ukraine and; so, draw their own conclusions as to who is at fault, Russia? Ukraine? European Union and America (NATO)? Or all of the above?
Por nada, compadre.
—the Prophet-Messenger
WITHOUT DOUBT, NO People in their right minds cherish the idea of picking up arms against his neighbour even if there’s a cause. For warfare is both expensive and costly in all ramifications on both sides of the warring parties.
Always, Arms Struggle is the result of failed peaceful dialogue to resolving knotty issues such as this—Russo-Ukraine tussle.
Who is the cause of this war? what is the cause this war? Russia? Ukraine? Europe Union and America?
To the ignorant and casual observers Russia seems the aggressor.
Yet, to the knowing minds, such as ours, the West, US and Ukraine are the real culprits, the real trouble hunters.
Stratified World
In the days of the Cold-War, shortly after World War 2 in 1945, the world had been stratified into three Blocs:
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) comprising European Union and the US. It’s a military alliance and cooperation by each member nation to defend one another in the event of war.
And America created military bases in many of the member nations with their weapons of mass destruction.
WARSAW PACT, on the other hand, had been formed to counter NATO, by Eastern Europe, the Slavic and the defunct UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS (USSR). And the headquarters was in Warsaw, capital of Poland.
Now, the SOVIET UNION had been composed of Fifteen Republics of which included Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Moldova, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, et al.
The combination of Eastern Europe and the SOVIET UNION, Russia, like US, had been the main skeeper, the backbone of the alliance.
The third Bloc was the NON-ALLIGNED MOVEMENT (NAM) consisting of Scandinavia nations (five nations in all); Africa (Libya excepted); South America and the Caribbean; with the exception of Cuba and the Middle East.
The former two (NATO and WARSAW PACT) had locked horns in Arms-Race for superiority and dominance for decades. While the latter had been indifferent.
NATO Nations ; however, favour Capitalism and Democracy. Whilst WARSAW Nations had been Communist and practiced closed economy, having minimal dealings with the rest of the world.
Break-Up Of Warsaw Pact
However, Mikhail Gorbachev, a Russian descent, who fancied
Western Culture, became the President of the SOVIET UNION in 1990. Boris Yetsin, was the Prime Minister of Russia and Vladimir Putin was his Vice.
Nevertheless, America, by political and economic intrigues surreptitiously had Gorbachev carried out political and economical reforms of which gave birth to GLASNOST (Openness) and PERESTROIKA (Restructuring). This led to political revolution in the Soviet Union.
The upshot of it was the disintegration of SOVIET UNION and each member State became independent republic. Naturally, Mikhail Gorbachev lost his office in1991. Then the WARSAW PACT died a natural death.
In effect, Boris Yetsin became the President of Russia Federation, Vladimir Putin remained his Vice.
However, for health reasons, after undergoing major heart transplant operation, he survived it; though, he continued to rule Russia for a while, later on, Boris Yetsin resigned his presidency to his country home indulging in the game he cherished most-- lawn tennis.
Nonetheless, Putin automatically became the defacto and the dejure President of Russia Federation.
However, Russia, which consisted of 75% of the former Soviet Union, had tried without success to retain the other Republics by fusing them into an alliance called CIS
( COMMON-WEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES), a loose organization designed to protecting themselves, mostly militarily.
And Ukraine was among.
NATO: Fishing In The Troubled Waters Of Warsaw Pact
Truth is, Russia had warned her former WARSAW PACT States and NATO upon pains of war never to join NATO; nor, NATO lure them to her union.
They were expected to be Non-Aligned to any party, to stay aloof sort of. Yet both had been heedless.
No sooner WARSAW PACT and the SOVIET UNION had broken up than NATO came fishing in their troubled waters!
Tough.
Immediate Cause Of The War?
Truth is, in warfare campaigns fielding an army of soldiers and weapons in the battle field are not sufficient enough to successfully prosecute a war. War is a complex expedition—
It demands huge expenditure of finance, labour, time and thorough planning. To bring about victory, supply chains of food, water, medicine, medical personnel, troops deployments and weapons reinforcement are imperative. And these things are not only difficult to transport to the battle field but also expensive.
So, the implication is, proximity to enemy’s territory is inevitable!
This was the sole reason America lost the war with Vietnam, 1955-1975.
America, in appreciation of this very fact, scarcely had WARSAW PACT and the SOVIET UNION disintegrated than NATO came to absorb some of them and trying to woo others into their union including the NON-ALIGNED STATES.
Worst of it, NATO had been working hard to bringing Ukraine to their Military Pact of which the latter is too excited to join.
How does it affect Russia; then?
Bravo!
Ukraine is strategically situated. Bounded in the East by Russia and in the South by the Black Sea. And the Black Sea is seen as a huge funnel through which lethal weapons (biological, chemical and nuclear) would be pouring into Ukraine when she becomes part of NATO; thus, jeopardizing Russia’s very existence.
Believe you me, this is the main cause of the WAR!
As far as that goes, Russia is fighting for her future existence.
Evidently, Russia has exhausted all possible means for peaceful resolution with all stake holders and Ukraine herself; but, to no avail.
This is the simple demand of Russia:
” Ukraine, Stay Neutral…stay Non-Aligned.”
Is that too much a demand?
Nonetheless, Russia had appealed to US to stop coaxing Ukraine into NATO, had appealed to Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, to fight shy of joining NATO, it fell but on deaf ears.
Believe me, Russia was left with no choice but to resort to war.
Not that I justify the war, mind you, but looking at it objectively.
Volodymyr Zelensky; believe me, is reaping the errors of his way by breaking the OATH of FIDELITY to WARSAW PACT and the CIS.
The war is the result of his error of judgement. For he’d thought that being a member NATO and breaking ties with his brother Russia, that in the event of war NATO would rally round their forces and jointly fight Russia, overtly.
Oh, yes, they could do that with other nations but not with Russia. For Russia alone can take the whole NATO!
And their war slogan is:
” Leave No Stone Unturned”
Which implies total and thorough destruction of enemy nation of which Ukraine is witnessing right now.
Tough.
Russia and Ukraine, embrace peace for God's sake.
My Advice
Well, before much destruction is done, Volodymyr Zelensky, take my advice, call for a TRUCE, a Round Table Dialogue while the calling is good.
That’s the only way out, mon amin, for you can't defeat a nuclear nation, such as Russia.
Cuidado…be careful.
So long.
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